Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 4.713532 5.533309 6.439691 7.514241 8.751410 10.129117 11.777487
2025-08-24 3.363711 4.439575 5.758681 7.486117 9.678770 12.358328 15.869018
2025-08-31 2.530564 3.689913 5.240680 7.446115 10.477388 14.468950 20.088703
2025-09-07 2.085453 3.310061 5.072976 7.758459 11.699059 17.212191 25.435727
2025-09-14 1.701607 2.915640 4.782131 7.803760 12.498938 19.421812 30.273089
2025-09-21 1.412378 2.595430 4.526140 7.827375 13.225114 21.560775 35.205521
2025-09-28 1.187967 2.329835 4.298955 7.838698 13.900219 23.658913 40.264141
2025-10-05 1.115776 2.313326 4.477408 8.535127 15.757237 27.793000 48.937733
2025-10-12 0.994551 2.179711 4.423293 8.808623 16.914577 30.884816 56.198591
2025-10-19 0.892396 2.061966 4.375600 9.078038 18.082394 34.092312 63.941630
2025-10-26 0.780762 1.901748 4.218241 9.111402 18.810536 36.587275 70.660058
2025-11-02 0.658314 1.692704 3.927642 8.836525 18.911545 37.947053 75.452013
2025-11-09 0.540942 1.473460 3.585586 8.419104 18.706686 38.766778 79.431820
2025-11-16 0.464185 1.335065 3.396763 8.298717 19.088778 40.748148 85.814625
2025-11-23 0.402153 1.219715 3.240032 8.223888 19.553375 42.933102 92.796886
2025-11-30 0.372080 1.182307 3.260856 8.554854 20.928354 47.075562 104.032855
2025-12-07 0.330791 1.104062 3.167290 8.600478 21.670831 49.976113 112.990681
2025-12-14 0.293989 1.030070 3.071379 8.624919 22.364545 52.833397 122.102267
2025-12-21 0.261459 0.961128 2.976482 8.636814 23.027378 55.680647 131.432138
2025-12-28 0.260480 0.992477 3.161262 9.397733 25.574390 62.903832 150.794099
2026-01-04 0.242527 0.963654 3.171578 9.696431 27.017842 67.771119 165.365557
2026-01-11 0.225979 0.935732 3.179860 9.990647 28.482239 72.811562 180.721624
2026-01-18 0.203616 0.881477 3.099983 10.027073 29.289150 76.390648 193.047135